3g-g
3rd November 2006, 12:50 PM
Taken from wireless week, the original article is here. (http://www.wirelessweek.com/article/CA6387872.html)
Pass, fail. Win, lose. Black, white. Sometimes in the rush for definitive classifiers, we miss the evolving values of new technologies.
We are an impatient lot, are we not? We launched 3G several years ago and some industry representatives already are proclaiming it a failure. That's a little like identifying a loser in the Kentucky Derby just because he got out of the gate slowly or rounded the first turn in last place. Let's consider a few 3G facts.
3G is a journey, not a destination. Upon its birth and delivery to the world, it's not exactly like wireless operators could plug a 3G card into the metaphorical cell switch in the sky and magically convert all wireless networks to 3G. There are thousands upon thousands of cell sites that have to be upgraded to make 3G a commercial reality some areas of the U.S. wireless world are still working toward that end.
Furthermore, handsets had to be converted and improved to carry 3G offerings. In fact, handsets are still being upgraded to improve the user experience and to help the customer fully realize and appreciate the applications. These evolutionary upgrades are dictated by how consumers actually use the devices and applications.
Beyond that, applications still are being developed to lead customers to believe that they need to secure a handset with this service capability in it.
I recently traveled to Basking Ridge, N.J., to speak with Dick Lynch, executive vice president and chief technology officer of Verizon Wireless. Among the subjects we discussed, I asked about this rush to judgment and he categorically denied that 3G is a failure.
"Part of the dilemma is that our expectation around 3G in some areas was probably overly aggressive," he said. "And that over-aggressiveness, that over-optimism led to over-investment. Some people are now worried about recouping that investment, but I believe they will get it back over time."
Lynch suggested that expecting phenomenal success with a technology within the first year or two is unrealistic. "It takes time," he insisted.
He recalled that when people bought computers a couple of years ago, they wanted faster processors and more memory. Faster and bigger was better. "When 3G first hit the horizon, that was what it was all about more speed, more speed, more speed," he said. But then putting on his other hat, Lynch said he had to ask, "What do you do with this stuff?" and he admits that we are still finding out what you can do with 3G.
"While 4G is going to come along and it is going to be faster, better and all of the attributes of the next generation, we still don't know all of the things we can do with 3G. What we have finally convinced most people is that faster download speeds or faster upload speeds aren't the end-all of this process. It is really what applications can you do with what you have, and we have just begun to see them," he said.
However, as the guy running a network, Lynch also said he wants to make sure all of these applications work efficiently on the network, work well for the customer and don't become a burden for either. "I think we are going to see customers gravitating to applications that make sense for them," Lynch said. "And that's the real success of 3G."
I agree with Lynch, who brought up a valid point about customer preferences. All subscribers are not equal. They have different wants and expectations for their mobile experience. Not everyone wants the same full-on, deep-dip into voice and data that is available. And beyond the different expectations, there's a time-consuming learning curve.
New findings from a TNS Global Technology Insights 2006 study support Lynch's assertion that subscribers don't yet know all that 3G can do for them. The study reports that U.S. consumers, when compared to consumers around the world, are more likely to look for mobile phones with features such as a still camera (42 percent vs. 35 percent), mobile Internet (19 percent vs. 12 percent), e-mail (22 percent vs. 12 percent) and mobile gaming (13 percent vs. 7 percent) when making their next phone purchase. However, consumers don't seem to understand that 3G phones provide technology that allows them to use more advanced versions of these features.
According to Don Ryan, TNS vice president of Technology and Media, "It's similar to the evolution from dial-up Internet to cable modems or DSL. It took consumers a period of time to understand how much faster they could access the Internet with cable and DSL compared to their dial-up modems." Ryan adds that as mobile phone users become more comfortable with 3G technology, they will use it more often.
If operators are still discovering the power of 3G and consumers are still learning about its capabilities, I think Dick Lynch may just be right: "There's a lot of runway left for 3G."
Pass, fail. Win, lose. Black, white. Sometimes in the rush for definitive classifiers, we miss the evolving values of new technologies.
We are an impatient lot, are we not? We launched 3G several years ago and some industry representatives already are proclaiming it a failure. That's a little like identifying a loser in the Kentucky Derby just because he got out of the gate slowly or rounded the first turn in last place. Let's consider a few 3G facts.
3G is a journey, not a destination. Upon its birth and delivery to the world, it's not exactly like wireless operators could plug a 3G card into the metaphorical cell switch in the sky and magically convert all wireless networks to 3G. There are thousands upon thousands of cell sites that have to be upgraded to make 3G a commercial reality some areas of the U.S. wireless world are still working toward that end.
Furthermore, handsets had to be converted and improved to carry 3G offerings. In fact, handsets are still being upgraded to improve the user experience and to help the customer fully realize and appreciate the applications. These evolutionary upgrades are dictated by how consumers actually use the devices and applications.
Beyond that, applications still are being developed to lead customers to believe that they need to secure a handset with this service capability in it.
I recently traveled to Basking Ridge, N.J., to speak with Dick Lynch, executive vice president and chief technology officer of Verizon Wireless. Among the subjects we discussed, I asked about this rush to judgment and he categorically denied that 3G is a failure.
"Part of the dilemma is that our expectation around 3G in some areas was probably overly aggressive," he said. "And that over-aggressiveness, that over-optimism led to over-investment. Some people are now worried about recouping that investment, but I believe they will get it back over time."
Lynch suggested that expecting phenomenal success with a technology within the first year or two is unrealistic. "It takes time," he insisted.
He recalled that when people bought computers a couple of years ago, they wanted faster processors and more memory. Faster and bigger was better. "When 3G first hit the horizon, that was what it was all about more speed, more speed, more speed," he said. But then putting on his other hat, Lynch said he had to ask, "What do you do with this stuff?" and he admits that we are still finding out what you can do with 3G.
"While 4G is going to come along and it is going to be faster, better and all of the attributes of the next generation, we still don't know all of the things we can do with 3G. What we have finally convinced most people is that faster download speeds or faster upload speeds aren't the end-all of this process. It is really what applications can you do with what you have, and we have just begun to see them," he said.
However, as the guy running a network, Lynch also said he wants to make sure all of these applications work efficiently on the network, work well for the customer and don't become a burden for either. "I think we are going to see customers gravitating to applications that make sense for them," Lynch said. "And that's the real success of 3G."
I agree with Lynch, who brought up a valid point about customer preferences. All subscribers are not equal. They have different wants and expectations for their mobile experience. Not everyone wants the same full-on, deep-dip into voice and data that is available. And beyond the different expectations, there's a time-consuming learning curve.
New findings from a TNS Global Technology Insights 2006 study support Lynch's assertion that subscribers don't yet know all that 3G can do for them. The study reports that U.S. consumers, when compared to consumers around the world, are more likely to look for mobile phones with features such as a still camera (42 percent vs. 35 percent), mobile Internet (19 percent vs. 12 percent), e-mail (22 percent vs. 12 percent) and mobile gaming (13 percent vs. 7 percent) when making their next phone purchase. However, consumers don't seem to understand that 3G phones provide technology that allows them to use more advanced versions of these features.
According to Don Ryan, TNS vice president of Technology and Media, "It's similar to the evolution from dial-up Internet to cable modems or DSL. It took consumers a period of time to understand how much faster they could access the Internet with cable and DSL compared to their dial-up modems." Ryan adds that as mobile phone users become more comfortable with 3G technology, they will use it more often.
If operators are still discovering the power of 3G and consumers are still learning about its capabilities, I think Dick Lynch may just be right: "There's a lot of runway left for 3G."