[@NickyColman]

Well, its that time of year again! We're speeding towards 2010 and leaving the first decade of the millennium behind!

So whats everyone predicting for 2010 - in terms of handsets, networks, mergers, innovations etc?

[Ben]

Hopefully the global economic conditions aren't going to put too much of a dampener on 2010. I think handset sales and subscriber growth are still giving all the right signals, and I don't think we've reached the stage yet where operators are so short-termist that they'll slash capital spending, so hopefully network development will push ahead.

I don't know what's happening with 900MHz refarming but I'm quite confident that, in the UK at least, it remains a colossal obstacle to further 3G (and beyond) rollout. I don't think any UK operator will be rushing into LTE beyond trials in any substantive way until they can deploy it where they want it (and where it might actually reach more than half a dozen people, even when they're in a building)! Femtocell's may well see the insides of more homes - perhaps operators will launch ADSL routers featuring integrated HSPA nodes combined with special 'home' tariffs as a way of creating loyalty.

Orange and T-Mobile are currently fighting to have their merger reviewed by Europe rather than the UK bodies as they fear a protracted investigation. Either way I think it'll go through OK, but they're also fighting to keep all of their combined spectrum and I'm not sure they'll get away with that.

Handset makers... well it'd be easy to predict the demise of a few (!) of them that have consistently underperformed in recent years. I don't believe the American's will allow Motorola to die... I think the brand still has a mythical value in their culture. Selling 'generic' hardware loaded with Android may well be the way forward for them - a western HTC if you will. Nokia may well continue to flail around, despite maintaining a large chunk of market share, even if it becomes increasingly dependent on selling cheaper handsets in developing markets.

Apple will release a new iPhone, likely to continue to build on their success. This will obviously be a 'big deal', but if the evolution follows the iPod line then we're basically getting a protracted development with a relatively predictable cycle of new features. Expansion of the range continues to be a possibility if Apple decides to go after a larger market share, but they may well resist the temptation and instead keep their laser focus trained on the high-end-high-margin stuff.

The wildcards will be the most interesting developments. We've got some reasonably-capable HSPA networks now in the UK, so there's slightly increased odds that someone will actually come up with an interesting idea for using them. A UK 'invention' is unlikely, but our multi-national operators may drag in a concept from overseas - O2's Jogger is a good, if not slightly uninspiring, example.

I think it'll be at least 2012 now before we see major changes to network infrastructure (primarily LTE onwards), so 2010 should, in theory, be a relatively steady and stable development of HSPA and data-centric terminals.

[miffed]

I reckon Orange and Vodafone's data networks will crumble under the demand of the iPhone , Orange Customers will be forced to admit that o2 wasn't that bad in comparison , but Vodafone customers will won't bat an eyelid , and be happy that they are getting a 'better class' of network failure.

[Hands0n]

Hmmm, 2010 huh? It seems to me that so many disparate technologies are all banking on 2012 that I don't think that 2010 is going to be anything particularly special.

I forecast that 2010 may well be the true beginning of wholesale Android take-up by the marketplace. There are lots of new models due in 1Q/2010 and more are likely to follow throughout the rest of the year. But will the public actually "get it"?

I also think that RIM are about to make a bit of a comeback through sales of their Blackberry product to non-enterprise customers. In the final quarter of this year there has been a fairly big take-up of their Curve 8520 handset. The built-in RIM Instant Messaging functionality seems to have been a bit of a hit with the youngsters. RIM are going to make good with this through word-of-mouth recommendations alone. It seems that on Facebook they're all swapping their IM identification numbers.

I really am not expecting there to be too much in the way of actual networking. Airtime will remain 3G/HSPA throughout 2010. O2's test deployment of LTE is insignificant for this coming year. Again, it appears that 2012 is going to be the magical year for a lot of these wonderous new technologies.

There is likely to be some continued increase in the value of mobile broadband propositions. Either lower prices, increased data caps or a mixture of both will become apparent.

I do think that 3 may be one to watch. Kevin Russell (MD) seems to be making some subtle changes in the company. There seems to be some evidence of a UK call centre in place - they had got rid of all the UK call centre staff, dispersing them into the retail shops or making them redundant. Yet recently one of our T3G members spoke to a UK call centre operator. Their Mumbai operation is still very much in evidence, but maybe, hopefully even, Kevin and the team are bringing the customer service operations back home. To do so would improve their chances of survival no end. The off-shore operation seems to have developed a key knack of making customers totally fed up. The Mumbai location knows little of how UK customers expect to be engaged with and seem to cause a great deal of ill will as a consequence. So, if in 2010 3 can re-engage with its UK customers it will be a good thing to see.

I suppose any annual review these days has to include Apple and it's still-iconic iPhone. Love it or hate it, the device has certainly made a huge impact any way you look at it. Apple may well bring out yet another incremental edition of the hardware, but I don't expect it to be anything particularly earth-shattering. A new release of OS X is almost a dead certainty, but I wonder what new stuff could be included as the current release seems to do it all.

And so 2010 is likely to be fairly average, nothing particularly big, perhaps a year of consolidation and moderate growth. But not likely to be too much more.

[gorilla]

I think 2010 is going to be a bad year for mobiles!
For the consumer, contract tariffs are going to get more expensive (albeit by offering more inclusive minutes etc)
Handsets: Rather than jump on the Android band wagon, manufacturers will still try and push their own OS and those that do release Android devices will "add" their own features and thus dilute the Android experience.
Apple will release the most expensive iPhone yet - the tablet ;-)
Mobile data speeds will slow down due to demand, but 3G will become more widespread.

Of course none of this is based on any actual fact! :D

[hecatae]

more Edge coverage in the UK to make using an IPhone bearable

[Hands0n]

All together now in a strong Scots brogue ... "We're doooomed, we're dooooomed"

[3GScottishUser]

I really don't know what to predict re 2010 as 2009 has delivered a lot of surprises in the mobile sector.

3 UK is a lame duck. It's been limping along for years and whilst it has recently embraced mobile Internet and gained some support it's now on the run again being chased by the majors for mobile BB customers. I think HWL will dump 3 UK in 2010 and get what they can for it. They have invested £10+ Billion in it but it's a huge on-going cost that has little prospect of making back anything like the stake they invested. Who will buy it? Vodafone, 02 or perhaps BT to regain a foothold but I suspect if BT bought it they would do a deal with 02/Vodafone to share the bandwidth and remain a partner but operate as an MVNO to all intents.

Orange/T-Mobile will be interesting to watch. Lets see what that produces for consumers. I doubt if it will do much other than help both companies reduce operating costs.

02 has been a runaway success. The network that has ignored technology and still won the big battles because they have a brand that appeals to value concious customers and they seem to know how to look after them. 02 have long delivered what customers want to satisfactory standards and are technology neutral. GSM, UMTS, HSDPA, EDGE, LTE, they have been at the forefront of them all but have been selective about investment and their business success suggests they have been right to date. I hae no doubt 02 will continue to do well with both their own innovative offerings and co-operation with MVNO partners in 2010.

Vodafone are the solid plodder who have a premium place in the market and they should do well in 2010 with consolodation offering the iPhone and their own expanding range of communications products. Customer loyalty plays a big part for Vodafone I suspect and they are better than most at retention.

Virgin, Asda, Tesco and the others. Who would have thought Tesco Mobile would have had the iPhone at the end of 2009? There appears lots to play for with new offerings appearing from new MVNOs all the time. With the number of networks shrinking it puts paid to the notion that the market will become less competitive. Expect new offers in 2010 including SIM only Mobile Broadband and other innovations to keep the majors on their toes!

Mobile is no longer a luxury and the 'all you can eat' at a fixed price is just about there. In 2010 it will probably appear (with some fair use condistins) but it will become the subject of competition for sure. £25, £20, or £15 a month?? We shall see...