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Ben's Talk3G Blog

The General Purpose PC is Dead

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by , 31st October 2010 at 01:00 PM (9751 Views)
It's a reasonable expectation that PCs aren't going to change a great deal. It's likely that they'll continue to get incrementally better, but without evolving into something revolutionary themselves.

At the same time, an increasing number of PC functions are being farmed out to dedicated devices. Convergence is no longer the buzzword in PC land - divergence has well and truly taken over as we realise that specialised hardware is much better at doing certain tasks than a beige box stuck in the study or, increasingly, even a laptop.

Cloud services are even challenging the PC's place as the household overlord when it comes to storing and syncing data. Services like MobileMe take much of that away, and it surely wont be long before whole media libraries are stored in the cloud and then streamed and downloaded to authorised devices. When I get my iPhone 10, for example, I should be able to enter my MobileMe credentials and have all of my data populate it in an instant.

That, I think, will be the key downfall of the PC. But at the moment data connectivity just isn't fast or reliable enough to remove the need for a central cache in the home. One day, however, it will be.

What might replace the PC? Well, terminals much more specialised for content creation may well appear. Perhaps we'll finally see thin clients in homes and offices taking the lions share of word processing etc into the cloud. Tablets and smartphones are never going to capture the creation markets for anything more than the most casual consumer stuff, so powerful workstations will need to remain on some level.

Will it actually happen? The desktop, I feel, is already sliding out of favour, but we as a species love our laptops. Yet Apple has just placed these squarely in the danger zone thanks to the new range of MacBook Air computers. These, more than ever before, are screens and keyboards. Good ones, not Netbook rubbish, but screens and keyboards all the same. They're what we're supposed to use for writing our essays and reports, and taking anywhere to do presentations and such. A complement, then, to an iPad, for reading our books and newspapers and playing games, and an iPhone for running our day-to-day lives and managing our communication needs. If they could just deal with the overbearing iTunes library issue, and the need for iDevices to be sync'd, they'd be the closest to this vision of the future of any technology company in business today.

But we love our laptops And while there's a compelling range of software that needs some local grunt in order to run, not to mention a society constrained by limited access to money, the general purpose computer is likely to live on in that form factor for many, many years yet - even if it's invaded, and eroded, from all sides.
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    1. Hands0n's Avatar
        I would have to take some issue with any notion that the new MacBook Air computers are merely "screens and keyboards". Although I do agree that the future is more likely to be along these lines than to the paradigm that we are currently used to. Ultimately I would expect our computing device to be something that we engage with using our natural built-in communications capabilities*, with speech becoming the dominant means. I wonder how long, for example, the screen will be used for much of what it is now used for.

        The new MacBook Air computers are equating, in performance terms, to the current 15" MBP thanks for improved chipsets in the new machines. And they are no slouches at multi-tasking as witnessed by a WSJ columnist
        I was surprised to find that even the base $999 model was powerful enough to easily run seven or eight programs at once, including Microsoft Office, iTunes and the Safari browser with more than 20 Web sites open. It also played high-definition video with no skipping or stuttering.
        The full review article can be read here --> http://ptech.allthingsd.com/20101027...d-in-a-laptop/

        I do think that Apple are showing the world the way forward in many respects. However, the traditional manufacturers with their vested interests are holding us all back.

        * - So what I'm looking for here is the computer interaction that we see in 2001 A Space Odyssey, Iron Man, Star Trek, that sort of thing. I do not, however, see the likes of Dragon Naturally Speaking being the end goal.

        It is one thing to be able to speak to a machine to command it to do things. But what I am looking for is a machine that will be socially interactive, almost sentient, one that I can talk with and not to. That is my future for personal computing, as and when it happens.
        Updated 31st October 2010 at 05:19 PM by Hands0n
      • Ben's Avatar
          I agree that the MacBook Air itself is no fairy, but the very form factor is an embodiment of a future text-input machine. It has retained all of the local grunt needed for a decent computer in this day and age, but it's easy to see how something even svelter could exist in a cloud driven future. It's no gaming machine, no video editor; it's not a general purpose PC like a MacBook Pro could be termed.

          Now I'm yearning after an evolved MobileMe that'll untie my iDevices from my Mac. Sigh.
        • The Mullet of G's Avatar
            Meanwhile back here in reality...

            I like your vision of the future even if it is a bit Apple coloured and unlikely to happen. Lets be honest the majority of people have no interest in any of that stuff, they simply want a cheap sub £300 computer to browse ebay and send emails. I build PC's for people and it always surprises me how little people actually use the technology available to them, upon investigation it isn't because its too difficult or they don't know how, its mostly because they don't have any practical need for it.
          • Ben's Avatar
              Did you say sub-£300 computer? I'd rather forgotten what the great unwashed were computing on these days, save for the deathlike Acer laptop I got earlier in the year.

              The vast majority using only a fraction of their PCs potential is surely an invitation for diverged devices such as tablets. Perhaps a £150 Android tablet will do the job 5 times out of 10. If that were the case, sales of cheapo PCs just halved.
            • The Mullet of G's Avatar
                I think you'd be pleasantly surprised by how much bang for your buck can be had for under £300. I recently built a PC for someone excluding a monitor for around £250 and it was vastly overpowered for what it was required to do. I just priced the main components in an iMac costing £1,649.00 and without even shopping about to get the best prices my total came to £369 so for just over £300 I could give you the iMac experience minus the shiny packaging and monitor, another £220 gets you a 27" monitor.

                I agree a cheap tablet would probably do the job in most cases, but the problem is they already have hardware more than capable of doing everything they could ever think of doing, how do you convince those same people to buy other hardware to do the same thing? Especially hardware running an OS that might be unfamiliar to them, given that choice most people statistically opt to stick with Windows.
              • Ben's Avatar
                  You should've told me you could build an iMac for £589, I just bought 6 - you'd have saved me a fortune.

                  That's the thing, Windows isn't the only OS familiar to people anymore. iOS and Android are becoming very familiar, and I don't think people will think twice about buying a tablet running one of those instead of a craptastic cheapo PC next time they're in the market.
                • The Mullet of G's Avatar
                    Ask 50 people on the street if they know what Windows is and chances are all of them will know even if they never actually use computers, you ask them about Android or iOS and more than half wont have a clue what your talking about. I think the netbook market is a perfect example of the power of Windows, people said no one would use Windows on a netbook and Linux would dominate, where is Linux now? Yes thats right its being severely dry humped by Windows on netbooks. People need to stop kidding themselves on that stuff like Linux or OS X or any derivatives are relevant to the masses as they simply aren't, no one cares besides a few nerds.
                  • Ben's Avatar
                      Yes but nobody knows what Linux is, of course it was never going to succeed in Netbooks. Linux has been free for the desktop forever; the only reason nobody uses it is because it's pure crap as a desktop OS. I think you grossly underestimate just how much of a street presence iOS and Android have, particularly in the South.

                      If the next generation of 'computers' belongs to the boys at Redmond as the last generation did then we should all kill ourselves, by the way.
                    • The Mullet of G's Avatar
                        Yeah I expect life is very different in the South, while we here in the North get to grips with the abacus the South is talking Android tablets and iOS.

                        I recently read a study by MyType that said iPads were mostly bought by elitist fuds, they questioned 20,000 people and found that in the average population 3% either owned or considered buying an iPad, while 11% were critical of it, presumably the rest didn't know what it was or had no opinion, in the category of "elitist fud" they found that number went upto 18% with only 3% being critical, however in the category of "independent geeks" who are listed as people who are most likely to be self directed young people who look down on conformity and are interested in videogames, computers, electronics, science and the internet, only 4% owned or said they plan to own an iPad while 33% couldn't really see the point of it.

                        If the next generation of computers belongs to Redmond then more than 90% of the world will continue to be happy computer users, the other 50 or so people will try in vain to convince us that their minority OS really is so much better than ours, the other 90% will continue not to care.

                        I think Android has a better chance here, but even then I think you underestimate the power of Windows, the mere fact that something isn't Windows is enough to sway a vast number of people into giving it a wide berth.
                      • Ben's Avatar
                          I don't underestimate the power of Windows on conventional computers, but so far Microsoft has failed to make a credible play in the new smartphone/tablet computing world (should it materialise).

                          Even if Windows Phone 7 is a success, it's so 'un-Windows' that it gives Microsoft no advantage in the consumer recognition stakes other than brand. Tbh I think the Google brand has it trumped even there.

                          If only 3% of the UK population are currently interested in an iPad then that's 1.8 million tablets from a single manufacturer! Yikes! The remaining 86% would be knowing what an iPad is rather speedily with uptake like that.
                          Updated 3rd November 2010 at 02:20 PM by Ben
                        • The Mullet of G's Avatar
                            Again you are failing to appreciate the power of Windows, I know you like Macs and you see Windows as being "beneath you" but I don't know why its so difficult for you to just accept that you alone cannot fight Windows. To crush the Linux movement on netbooks Microsoft merely extended XP's lifespan and then rolled out its next OS, it did nothing specifically to take over the netbook market, but with a couple of small gestures it completely ended any competition. Granted this might not be so easy in the tablet market, but a company that can have such an effect by doing so little should never be underestimated.

                            I think Google did beat Microsoft in brand recognition, but that was in 2007 it now sits 4th again behind Microsoft if I'm not mistaken.

                            Also you might want to read my post again, 20,000 people can't really be considered the "UK population" I know we aren't a big country but we aren't that small either, and being a businessman you more than anyone should know that 3% of people interested in something doesn't translate into 3% actually buying it.
                          • Ben's Avatar
                              You're the one that referred to 'average population' - you know as well as I do that these surveys take a small sample which is then blown up to represent the population as a whole.

                              Windows won on Netbooks because Desktop Linux sucks. The Early Learning Centre could have ousted Linux on Netbooks if it had been so inclined.

                              Yet look at Microsoft's many failed years in the mobile phone sector, where competing operating systems such as Symbian have kept Windows Mobile at bay with ease.

                              Yeah I know in surveys Google's and Microsoft's 'brands' have been in flux. I was saying that, I think, Google's brand in mobile trumps Microsoft's. Google has been around on mobile for many, many years now, since operators starting using Google search on their mobile portals.

                              Not sure why you're being abrasive re: Windows being 'beneath me'. I believe that the Apple computing ecosystem creates greater efficiencies for me than the Microsoft one can offer. This is my blog and you're getting my perspective, go figure Go write a blog about your own views if you wish!
                            • The Mullet of G's Avatar
                                That was almost a "this is my blog and you can't play with it" moment.

                                Ah right I get what you mean about the average population thing, slight miscommunication on my part, I think in this case "average population" refers to people who didn't fit into either the elitist fud or independent geek category, the figures and terminologies used are a little confusing though. Also I don't think the survey was done in the UK I suspect is was the US of A.

                                If the Early Learning Centre had ousted Linux on netbooks that would have been the most awesome thing since that time David Hasselhoff drove about in that talking car, alas it was left to Windows.

                                In fairness Symbian has kept pretty much everybody at bay with ease, Symbian is effectively Microsofts worst nightmare, its an OS that has a similar dominance and entrenchment that they enjoy on the desktop, as everyone knows thats hard to break. I suspect Microsoft will fare better in the mobile arena in the times ahead, they can be a lumbering giant at times, but when they do eventually bring the full might of the company to bear in a morel focused manner as they have done time and again, they are indeed a force to be reckoned with.

                                Again I misunderstood your point about Google and Microsofts brands in the mobile sector, in fairness though Android isn't doing as much as one would think to strengthen Googles branding as a lot of people still don't connect the two, if you say Windows people immediately think of Microsoft, if you say Android the same isn't true, in fact I find myself thinking about Data from Star Trek and how much cooler he is than the OS of the same name, agreed on the search thing though Google are huge in that area.

                                Also I don't think I was being abrasive, it was a humorous prod about Apple owners being elitists and looking down on us mere Windows using mortals, when I say humorous I make no guarantee that its actually funny. If I wrote a blog it would either be the most awesome piece of literature since the dawn of literature or a long winded rant about the merits of the name Marathon above Snickers, either way the risks are too great so I just don't do it.
                              • Ben's Avatar
                                  Marathon. All the way! Can't we get something done about that?
                                • The Mullet of G's Avatar
                                    We could write a blog about it or start a Facebook group? Also bring back Jif cleaner as Cif just sounds silly.