The General Purpose PC is Dead
by
, 31st October 2010 at 01:00 PM (9751 Views)
It's a reasonable expectation that PCs aren't going to change a great deal. It's likely that they'll continue to get incrementally better, but without evolving into something revolutionary themselves.
At the same time, an increasing number of PC functions are being farmed out to dedicated devices. Convergence is no longer the buzzword in PC land - divergence has well and truly taken over as we realise that specialised hardware is much better at doing certain tasks than a beige box stuck in the study or, increasingly, even a laptop.
Cloud services are even challenging the PC's place as the household overlord when it comes to storing and syncing data. Services like MobileMe take much of that away, and it surely wont be long before whole media libraries are stored in the cloud and then streamed and downloaded to authorised devices. When I get my iPhone 10, for example, I should be able to enter my MobileMe credentials and have all of my data populate it in an instant.
That, I think, will be the key downfall of the PC. But at the moment data connectivity just isn't fast or reliable enough to remove the need for a central cache in the home. One day, however, it will be.
What might replace the PC? Well, terminals much more specialised for content creation may well appear. Perhaps we'll finally see thin clients in homes and offices taking the lions share of word processing etc into the cloud. Tablets and smartphones are never going to capture the creation markets for anything more than the most casual consumer stuff, so powerful workstations will need to remain on some level.
Will it actually happen? The desktop, I feel, is already sliding out of favour, but we as a species love our laptops. Yet Apple has just placed these squarely in the danger zone thanks to the new range of MacBook Air computers. These, more than ever before, are screens and keyboards. Good ones, not Netbook rubbish, but screens and keyboards all the same. They're what we're supposed to use for writing our essays and reports, and taking anywhere to do presentations and such. A complement, then, to an iPad, for reading our books and newspapers and playing games, and an iPhone for running our day-to-day lives and managing our communication needs. If they could just deal with the overbearing iTunes library issue, and the need for iDevices to be sync'd, they'd be the closest to this vision of the future of any technology company in business today.
But we love our laptops And while there's a compelling range of software that needs some local grunt in order to run, not to mention a society constrained by limited access to money, the general purpose computer is likely to live on in that form factor for many, many years yet - even if it's invaded, and eroded, from all sides.