Ben's Talk3G Blog

Well, we're in 2009 now and sure enough the shift towards 3G domination appears to be taking place. All the top selling handsets these days are 3G enabled, many of them featuring the latest improvements to the technology in the form of various speeds of HSPA.

So what benefits are we reaping from this move that has cost the mobile industry billions of pounds and that we, ultimately, will pay the bill for?

Well, early adopters reaped one hell of a lot of grief, especially if they were on Three UK, so I wont even go there. I'll conclude 2003-2008 as a period where a fledgling mobile network armed with an array of abysmal mobile devices all-but-killed 3G in the UK, making "3G" about as high on shoppers' lists as HIV. Now, things are really moving.

1. Better voice calls. Calls connect first time, calls don't drop and are of great quality. It has taken a while, but we're finally at the stage where I'd say voice calls are better now than they've ever been. Certainly something not true in the early days of 3G!
2. Data speeds have increased. Perhaps the obvious one, but now mobile phones can actually browse the Internet - again something that wasn't initially possible! Moreover, 3G has finally arrived in the form of mobile broadband, allowing computers to go online almost anywhere at reasonable speeds - though currently sales have stalled due to innovation being non-existent (have a look at my Virual Router blog).
3. Tariffs are better value. You can now get everything you need for £35 a month, no matter what it is. Now, my first contract was £50 a month and gave me about 200 minutes, so there has definitely been progress. The real value has come in data. Yes, ok, on some tariffs the increase in speed from 3G has actually created the most effective bankruptcy tool known to man, but on others the price of data is now accessible to all providing you're not downloading Linux ISO's or warez (and you thought Linux ISO's was just a euphamism).
4. People are empowered. There is now mass-availability of mobile email, synchronisation tools and mobile applications. Power over information is shifting away from large incumbents in favour of smaller businesses and individuals.

There are still problems. Mobile operators are still overly-censoring Internet access on mobile devices, and restricting access so that certain services, which may compete with their business models, cannot operate effectively. There's also still a lot of short-termism around, with no operator seeming to have a good long-term vision at this stage.

Coverage is probably the major obstacle. Until we get 3G over "GSM" 900MHz, coverage will continue to suck. While 900MHz wont be used in cities (it'd be hopeless, it covers too big an area which causes capacity issues - even for UMTS I'd imagine), it'll be the silver bullet for getting to that fabled 99.9% population coverage. It will also be the beginning of the end for GSM, though there's no sign of any network heading for a switch-off just yet.

A good many mobile-related start-ups may well fail over the coming years as recession bites, particularly those giving away their wares while taking on vast amounts of Venture Capitalist funding with no way of making a return on that investment in clear sight. Perhaps there'll even be a mobile operator casualty, as my friend 3GScottishUser has been forecasting for some time now. Well 5 networks for a small, no longer wealthy country does seem a bit OTT. But hopefully we'll be left with a stronger, better playing field after the next few years are done - I just hope investment and R&D doesn't dry up, because it's those that put the effort in now that are going to reap the next set of rewards.